Amandla! (A!)*: If Copenhagen was a betrayal and Cancun treachery (in your words during the Dakar 2011 World Social Forum), given what is shaping up for Durban, how are we likely to characterise COP 17?
Pablo Solón (PS): The scenario for COP 17 is even worst than for Copenhagen and Cancun. If there is not enough social pressure, Durban could end up formalising an increase in global temperature of more than 4º C that would burn the planet and devastate Africa.
In negotiations up to now, those responsible for climate change have made no attempt to increase their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To have a hope of keeping temperature rises limited to 2º C, all countries together need to reduce 14 gigatons (Gt) of CO2e by 2020. Developed countries, who have the historical responsibility for climate change, are willing to reduce only between 3 to 3.6 Gt. Developing countries have committed to reduce by between 3.7 and 5 Gt. So in total there is a gap of around 7 to 5 Gt of CO2e. In other words, we are less than halfway there to even have a chance of meeting the global commitment of a less than 2º C temperature rise. Sigue leyendo →